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What’s happened?
Argentina’s foreign-exchange reserves stood at US$29bn (5% of GDP) on April 9th, having risen from a nadir of US$20.9bn on December 12th-the day after the president, Javier Milei, took office. This accumulation of reserves has reduced Argentina’s net negative foreign-exchange position from more than US$11bn in December to
What’s happened?
Malta’s current account recorded a surplus of EUR12.6m in October-December 2023, according to the Central Bank of Malta. This was up from a EUR78.3m deficit in the year-earlier period. In full-year 2023 the current-account deficit narrowed to 0.8% of GDP. We maintain our forecast for the current
Auxiliary infrastructure needed to support the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), from Ugandan oilfields to Tanzania’s Tanga port, is being developed, but hurdles that could delay the construction of the pipeline, such as financing shortfalls and court challenges, persist. Oil sector development will remain
The Pheu Thai Party’s free digital cash scheme, a key election promise, has met with delays and various obstacles, but the government panel’s approval of its financing details in early April puts it closer to being implemented in late 2024. Critics of the scheme, which includes the Bank of
What’s happened?
Candidates outlined their proposals for the vital tourism sector during the third and final presidential debate, held on April 3rd, ahead of the May 5th election. Their ideas included expected measures to boost the sector in the short term, such as investment in infrastructure, as well as more
Chile unveils new details of national lithium strategy
In late March the government of the president, Gabriel Boric, announced new details of its proposed national lithium strategy, through which it intends to give the state a more prominent role in the production of Chile’s vast lithium resources. The government’s new
What’s happened?
Inflation slowed to 3% year on year in February in Malta. This was the lowest level in over two years, down from 3.7% the previous month. The Eurostat consumer confidence indicator for Malta was -7.4 in March, above its -10.2 historical average, and well above lows seen in
(Forecast closing date: April 16th 2024)
Global power changes are leading to greater conflict and competition
The global geopolitical environment is characterised by increasing competition and conflict. The dangerous confrontation that has emerged between Israel and Iran highlights the ongoing risk of a regional war in the Middle East as the
US growth will prove resilient, aided by consumer spending
EIU expects US economic growth to remain resilient, with no recession in sight. Real GDP growth of 2% is forecast for 2024, moderating to 1.6% in 2025. The healthy outlook for the economy reflects the likelihood that household spending will remain
The European economy will struggle to build growth momentum
The European economy will again struggle for momentum in 2024. There are some tailwinds for growth, including stronger private consumption (reflecting easing inflation) and historically high nominal wage growth (driven by resilient labour markets). However, high interest rates inhibit the investment
What’s happened?
Argentina’s foreign-exchange reserves stood at US$29bn (5% of GDP) on April 9th, having risen from a nadir of US$20.9bn on December 12th-the day after the president, Javier Milei, took office. This accumulation of reserves has reduced Argentina’s net negative foreign-exchange position from more than US$11bn in December to
What’s happened?
Malta’s current account recorded a surplus of EUR12.6m in October-December 2023, according to the Central Bank of Malta. This was up from a EUR78.3m deficit in the year-earlier period. In full-year 2023 the current-account deficit narrowed to 0.8% of GDP. We maintain our forecast for the current
Auxiliary infrastructure needed to support the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), from Ugandan oilfields to Tanzania’s Tanga port, is being developed, but hurdles that could delay the construction of the pipeline, such as financing shortfalls and court challenges, persist. Oil sector development will remain
The Pheu Thai Party’s free digital cash scheme, a key election promise, has met with delays and various obstacles, but the government panel’s approval of its financing details in early April puts it closer to being implemented in late 2024. Critics of the scheme, which includes the Bank of
What’s happened?
Candidates outlined their proposals for the vital tourism sector during the third and final presidential debate, held on April 3rd, ahead of the May 5th election. Their ideas included expected measures to boost the sector in the short term, such as investment in infrastructure, as well as more
Chile unveils new details of national lithium strategy
In late March the government of the president, Gabriel Boric, announced new details of its proposed national lithium strategy, through which it intends to give the state a more prominent role in the production of Chile’s vast lithium resources. The government’s new
What’s happened?
Inflation slowed to 3% year on year in February in Malta. This was the lowest level in over two years, down from 3.7% the previous month. The Eurostat consumer confidence indicator for Malta was -7.4 in March, above its -10.2 historical average, and well above lows seen in
(Forecast closing date: April 16th 2024)
Global power changes are leading to greater conflict and competition
The global geopolitical environment is characterised by increasing competition and conflict. The dangerous confrontation that has emerged between Israel and Iran highlights the ongoing risk of a regional war in the Middle East as the
US growth will prove resilient, aided by consumer spending
EIU expects US economic growth to remain resilient, with no recession in sight. Real GDP growth of 2% is forecast for 2024, moderating to 1.6% in 2025. The healthy outlook for the economy reflects the likelihood that household spending will remain
The European economy will struggle to build growth momentum
The European economy will again struggle for momentum in 2024. There are some tailwinds for growth, including stronger private consumption (reflecting easing inflation) and historically high nominal wage growth (driven by resilient labour markets). However, high interest rates inhibit the investment
Key trends Geopolitical risk is weighing on the outlook for the global economy. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the dangerous confrontation that has emerged between Iran and Israel has highlighted
Key trends High interest rates and geopolitical competition are constraining global growth, but recession risks have receded. Global real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.4% in 2024, marginally below estimated growth of 2.5% in 2023. The US economy is forecast to remain resilient, and moderate stimulus in China will
Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as stoked by the Israel-Hamas war, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain reorganisation. Uncertainty over the foreign policy direction that the US will take after what is likely to be
Key trends Geopolitical risk is weighing on the outlook for the global economy. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the dangerous confrontation that has emerged between Iran and Israel has highlighted
Key trends High interest rates and geopolitical competition are constraining global growth, but recession risks have receded. Global real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.4% in 2024, marginally below estimated growth of 2.5% in 2023. The US economy is forecast to remain resilient, and moderate stimulus in China will
Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as stoked by the Israel-Hamas war, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain reorganisation. Uncertainty over the foreign policy direction that the US will take after what is likely to be
Telecommunications report: Overview The French telecommunications market is mature, with four fully convergent players. Capital expenditure in the forecast period (2024-28) will be split between the expansion of 5G mobile networks and fibre networks as companies work to meet the coverage targets set by the government for mobile and internet
Telecommunications report: Overview The information and communications technology (ICT) sector accounts for less than 2% of Azerbaijan’s GDP. Investment in telecommunications and technology has been low for the past decade. Foreign investors have been hesitant to invest in the country’s ICT sector, owing to widespread corruption, a weak judicial system,
Automotive report: Overview Although Finland is the fifth-largest EU member state in terms of territory, with a population of 5.5m, it is one of the smallest markets in western Europe. About 20% of the population live in the capital, Helsinki, and urbanisation across the country is high (as in other
Automotive report: Overview The UK’s automotive industry is in gradual structural decline. It is an integral part of the manufacturing sector, comprising 10% of goods exports, but vehicle production has fallen significantly since 2016 and prospects appear relatively unfavourable. This reflects various factors: the UK’s gradual relative economic decline and
Telecommunications report: Overview Sweden has a competitive and mature telecoms market, with four key players on the mobile side, and three main ones on the fixed side. Both 5G and fibre are widely available, with the latter having also been rolled out by multiple local players, especially in less dense
Telecommunications report: Overview The telecoms market in Canada is mature, but there are still growth opportunities, particularly in more remote areas, among the fast-rising immigrant population and amid the rise in new technologies. The country’s top three operators-Bell, Telus and Rogers-account for 90% of mobile subscriptions, and Rogers’ acquisition of
Telecommunications report: Overview Competition, technological convergence and consolidation have been the market’s main drivers in recent years. The Digital Spain 2025 agenda sets out about 50 measures based on ten strategic priorities, including a guarantee of nationwide 100-Mbps broadband coverage by 2025, accelerating the 5G spectrum rollout, improving digital skills
Telecommunications report: Overview Germany is the largest telecommunications market in Europe; only modest growth in mobile subscriptions and internet users is expected over the forecast period owing to the maturity of the market. Accelerated plans for fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) rollout, ongoing 4G/5G network builds and targeted policy support (including EU grants
Automotive report: Overview Portugal’s new-vehicle market is relatively small, and has been volatile for the past two decades. After falling during the covid-19 pandemic, the market has been recovering, and sales surged strongly in 2023. EIU expects a small correction in 2024, followed by subdued growth over the forecast period.
Automotive report: Overview Colombia is the fourth-largest vehicle producer in Latin America. The automotive industry accounts for 1.7% of GDP, and generates more than 45,000 jobs directly and 330,000 indirectly. However, despite having a total production capacity of about 320,000 units at 12 plants, automakers in Colombia assembled only about
Telecommunications report: Overview The French telecommunications market is mature, with four fully convergent players. Capital expenditure in the forecast period (2024-28) will be split between the expansion of 5G mobile networks and fibre networks as companies work to meet the coverage targets set by the government for mobile and internet
Telecommunications report: Overview The information and communications technology (ICT) sector accounts for less than 2% of Azerbaijan’s GDP. Investment in telecommunications and technology has been low for the past decade. Foreign investors have been hesitant to invest in the country’s ICT sector, owing to widespread corruption, a weak judicial system,
Automotive report: Overview Although Finland is the fifth-largest EU member state in terms of territory, with a population of 5.5m, it is one of the smallest markets in western Europe. About 20% of the population live in the capital, Helsinki, and urbanisation across the country is high (as in other
Automotive report: Overview The UK’s automotive industry is in gradual structural decline. It is an integral part of the manufacturing sector, comprising 10% of goods exports, but vehicle production has fallen significantly since 2016 and prospects appear relatively unfavourable. This reflects various factors: the UK’s gradual relative economic decline and
Telecommunications report: Overview Sweden has a competitive and mature telecoms market, with four key players on the mobile side, and three main ones on the fixed side. Both 5G and fibre are widely available, with the latter having also been rolled out by multiple local players, especially in less dense
Telecommunications report: Overview The telecoms market in Canada is mature, but there are still growth opportunities, particularly in more remote areas, among the fast-rising immigrant population and amid the rise in new technologies. The country’s top three operators-Bell, Telus and Rogers-account for 90% of mobile subscriptions, and Rogers’ acquisition of
Telecommunications report: Overview Competition, technological convergence and consolidation have been the market’s main drivers in recent years. The Digital Spain 2025 agenda sets out about 50 measures based on ten strategic priorities, including a guarantee of nationwide 100-Mbps broadband coverage by 2025, accelerating the 5G spectrum rollout, improving digital skills
Telecommunications report: Overview Germany is the largest telecommunications market in Europe; only modest growth in mobile subscriptions and internet users is expected over the forecast period owing to the maturity of the market. Accelerated plans for fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) rollout, ongoing 4G/5G network builds and targeted policy support (including EU grants
Automotive report: Overview Portugal’s new-vehicle market is relatively small, and has been volatile for the past two decades. After falling during the covid-19 pandemic, the market has been recovering, and sales surged strongly in 2023. EIU expects a small correction in 2024, followed by subdued growth over the forecast period.
Automotive report: Overview Colombia is the fourth-largest vehicle producer in Latin America. The automotive industry accounts for 1.7% of GDP, and generates more than 45,000 jobs directly and 330,000 indirectly. However, despite having a total production capacity of about 320,000 units at 12 plants, automakers in Colombia assembled only about
While the global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region, elevated commodity prices will still support South American commodity-exporting countries but keep Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions,
The global economy was more resilient than expected in late 2022
Global economic activity was more resilient than expected in late 2022, and started 2023 on a slightly firmer footing. Europe appears to have avoided a recession in the winter of 2022/23, in large part owing to warmer than usual
The global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region. That said, commodity prices will still provide support for South American commodity-exporting countries, while keeping Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions, Latin
While the global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region, elevated commodity prices will still support South American commodity-exporting countries but keep Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions,
The global economy was more resilient than expected in late 2022
Global economic activity was more resilient than expected in late 2022, and started 2023 on a slightly firmer footing. Europe appears to have avoided a recession in the winter of 2022/23, in large part owing to warmer than usual
The global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region. That said, commodity prices will still provide support for South American commodity-exporting countries, while keeping Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions, Latin
