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Most Recent News Analysis

The Polish economy is back on track

What’s happened?
Retail sales grew by 6.1% year on year and 3% month on month in February, according to data released by Statistics Poland. Data from other sectors are also strong, in line with our forecast that a consumption-led recovery is now under way.
Why does it matter?
Retail sales

Read More »

Malaysia’s inflation will creep up later in 2024

What’s happened?
According to the Department of Statistics, Malaysia’s consumer prices rose by 1.8% year on year in February, picking up slightly from the 1.5% increase in January. The readings matched our view that inflationary pressures will gradually build over 2024. However, core inflation (excluding certain volatile fresh food items

Read More »

Taiwan’s economy continues its uneven climb

What’s happened?
Taiwan’s domestic economic indicators continued to improve from January, with the industrial production index (IPI; 7.2%) and retail sales (4.3%) both averaging solid year-on-year growth across January and February. (This two-month analysis is undertaken to avoid seasonal distortions from the variable Lunar New Year holiday.) Given the momentum

Read More »

CABEI seeks to reduce Nicaragua’s share of total lending

In late February the new president of the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI), Gisela Sánchez of Costa Rica, indicated that the Bank was aiming to diversify its loan portfolio and would therefore be putting the brakes on new loans to Nicaragua and El Salvador-the two countries in which

Read More »

In charts: China’s outbound tourism in 2024

How has tourism performance been of late?

The recovery for Chinese tourism has been uneven, with a swift and sound rebound in domestic tourism, and tepid and partial growth for outbound tourism in 2023. Domestic tourism volume will exceed the pre-pandemic levels in 2024. According to the latest data from the

Read More »

Thai exports achieved mixed performance in February

What’s happened?
According to Ministry of Commerce data, Thailand’s merchandise export growth moderated to 3.6% year on year in February, from 10.6% a month earlier. Meanwhile, goods imports rose by 3.2%, resulting in a monthly trade deficit of US$554m that was much smaller than January’s deficit of US$2.8bn.
Why does

Read More »

Congress passes reform to reduce taxes in El Salvador

Congress passes reform to reduce taxes in El Salvador
What’s happened?
In early March lawmakers in El Salvador voted to eliminate a tax on overseas investment and remittances, removing the 30% rate that had previously been levied on transactions above US$150,000. Despite the country’s low-tax environment and efforts by the

Read More »

UAE efforts to increase role as funding hub progress

Across a range of measures, the UAE’s efforts to establish itself as a major regional fundraising centre appear to be making headway. The UAE has also established itself as the most active venture capital and private equity centre in the region. The growth in financing options reflect both the

Read More »

Kenyan smartphone and broadband penetration rises

What’s happened?
New data on March 14th revealed the rising penetration of smartphones and broadband internet connections in 2023, despite slow growth in mobile-phone subscriptions. We expect demand for higher-end equipment and services to continue to drive the key information and communications technology (ICT) sector.
Why does it matter?
Sluggish

Read More »

Special court in Lao SEZ unlikely to reduce crime rates

What happened?
The People’s Supreme Court of Laos, the country’s highest court, will establish a special court in the Golden Triangle Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Bokeo province to crack down on networks of human traffickers and scammers. However, the effectiveness of the special court will be limited, given that

Read More »

Most Recent News Analysis

The Polish economy is back on track

What’s happened?
Retail sales grew by 6.1% year on year and 3% month on month in February, according to data released by Statistics Poland. Data from other sectors are also strong, in line with our forecast that a consumption-led recovery is now under way.
Why does it matter?
Retail sales

Read More »

Malaysia’s inflation will creep up later in 2024

What’s happened?
According to the Department of Statistics, Malaysia’s consumer prices rose by 1.8% year on year in February, picking up slightly from the 1.5% increase in January. The readings matched our view that inflationary pressures will gradually build over 2024. However, core inflation (excluding certain volatile fresh food items

Read More »

Taiwan’s economy continues its uneven climb

What’s happened?
Taiwan’s domestic economic indicators continued to improve from January, with the industrial production index (IPI; 7.2%) and retail sales (4.3%) both averaging solid year-on-year growth across January and February. (This two-month analysis is undertaken to avoid seasonal distortions from the variable Lunar New Year holiday.) Given the momentum

Read More »

CABEI seeks to reduce Nicaragua’s share of total lending

In late February the new president of the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI), Gisela Sánchez of Costa Rica, indicated that the Bank was aiming to diversify its loan portfolio and would therefore be putting the brakes on new loans to Nicaragua and El Salvador-the two countries in which

Read More »

In charts: China’s outbound tourism in 2024

How has tourism performance been of late?

The recovery for Chinese tourism has been uneven, with a swift and sound rebound in domestic tourism, and tepid and partial growth for outbound tourism in 2023. Domestic tourism volume will exceed the pre-pandemic levels in 2024. According to the latest data from the

Read More »

Thai exports achieved mixed performance in February

What’s happened?
According to Ministry of Commerce data, Thailand’s merchandise export growth moderated to 3.6% year on year in February, from 10.6% a month earlier. Meanwhile, goods imports rose by 3.2%, resulting in a monthly trade deficit of US$554m that was much smaller than January’s deficit of US$2.8bn.
Why does

Read More »

Congress passes reform to reduce taxes in El Salvador

Congress passes reform to reduce taxes in El Salvador
What’s happened?
In early March lawmakers in El Salvador voted to eliminate a tax on overseas investment and remittances, removing the 30% rate that had previously been levied on transactions above US$150,000. Despite the country’s low-tax environment and efforts by the

Read More »

UAE efforts to increase role as funding hub progress

Across a range of measures, the UAE’s efforts to establish itself as a major regional fundraising centre appear to be making headway. The UAE has also established itself as the most active venture capital and private equity centre in the region. The growth in financing options reflect both the

Read More »

Kenyan smartphone and broadband penetration rises

What’s happened?
New data on March 14th revealed the rising penetration of smartphones and broadband internet connections in 2023, despite slow growth in mobile-phone subscriptions. We expect demand for higher-end equipment and services to continue to drive the key information and communications technology (ICT) sector.
Why does it matter?
Sluggish

Read More »

Special court in Lao SEZ unlikely to reduce crime rates

What happened?
The People’s Supreme Court of Laos, the country’s highest court, will establish a special court in the Golden Triangle Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Bokeo province to crack down on networks of human traffickers and scammers. However, the effectiveness of the special court will be limited, given that

Read More »

Most Recent Global Outlook

Country Forecast World 2nd Quarter 2024

Key trends High interest rates and geopolitical competition are constraining global growth, but recession risks have receded. Global real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.4% in 2024, marginally below estimated growth of 2.5% in 2023. The US economy is forecast to remain resilient, and moderate stimulus in China will

Read More »

Country Forecast World 1st Quarter 2024

Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as stoked by the Israel-Hamas war, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain reorganisation. Uncertainty over the foreign policy direction that the US will take after what is likely to be

Read More »

Country Forecast World 1st Quarter 2024

Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. Rising risks associated with the Israel-Hamas war add complexity to a global geopolitical environment that is characterised by intensifying competition. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as also stoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain

Read More »

Most Recent Global Outlook

Country Forecast World 2nd Quarter 2024

Key trends High interest rates and geopolitical competition are constraining global growth, but recession risks have receded. Global real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.4% in 2024, marginally below estimated growth of 2.5% in 2023. The US economy is forecast to remain resilient, and moderate stimulus in China will

Read More »

Country Forecast World 1st Quarter 2024

Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as stoked by the Israel-Hamas war, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain reorganisation. Uncertainty over the foreign policy direction that the US will take after what is likely to be

Read More »

Country Forecast World 1st Quarter 2024

Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. Rising risks associated with the Israel-Hamas war add complexity to a global geopolitical environment that is characterised by intensifying competition. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as also stoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain

Read More »

Most Recent Industry Reports

Automotive Report India 1st Quarter 2024

Automotive report: Overview India has the second-largest passenger-car market in Asia, after China, and has seen a robust recovery in sales since the covid-19 pandemic. EIU expects slower market growth over the five-year forecast period (2024/25-2028/29), registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% a year for new-passenger car

Read More »

Automotive Report Ireland 2024

Automotive report: Overview Ireland’s automotive market is large relative to the size of the country’s population (estimated at about 5m in 2023), but small compared with other EU countries. New-vehicle sales fluctuate sharply in line with economic growth. Owing to a range of factors, including tighter monetary policy, EIU expects

Read More »

Consumer Goods and Retail Report Norway 2024

Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Norway’s consumer market is small by European standards (with an estimated population of 5.5m in 2023). However, it is a wealthy country-100% of households are expected to earn more than US$25,000 by 2030, compared with about 95% in Germany and 94% in the UK,

Read More »

Consumer Goods and Retail Report China 1st Quarter 2024

Consumer goods and retail report: Overview China is the world’s second-largest economy and consumer market. Private consumption has been the fastest-growing segment of the economy since the reopening from zero covid at end-2022. EIU has a broadly positive outlook for consumption growth in 2024, which bodes well not just for

Read More »

Financial Services Report Italy March 2024

Overview Italy’s financial sector has become more resilient and profitable in recent years, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, steep price and interest-rate rises, and the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The main driving factor has been better management and cost controls, in the wake of a series

Read More »

Telecommunications Report Brazil 1st Quarter 2024

Telecommunications report: Overview Brazil is the world’s fourth-largest mobile-telephone market by subscribers, behind China, the US and India. Its telecommunications market is difficult for service providers to navigate, as they face high federal tax (ICMS) rates, which typically vary between 17% and 18% across different states. The involvement of multiple

Read More »

Financial Services Report Australia March 2024

Overview Robust capital and liquidity helped Australia’s financial sector to rebound from earlier setbacks amid the coronavirus pandemic and recession. However, the sector has faced more difficult conditions recently, owing to a surge in inflation, which has necessitated an aggressive bout of monetary tightening. Australian banks will continue to focus

Read More »

Automotive Report Chile March 2024

Automotive report: Overview Chile is the third-largest automotive market in Latin America, behind Brazil (2.1m units) and Mexico (1.1m), and its population-about 19.6m in 2023-is prosperous by regional standards. New light vehicle sales are volatile but are higher than pre-pandemic levels. In 2023 new registrations in this segment shrank by

Read More »

Telecommunications Report Hong Kong March 2024

Telecommunications report: Overview Hong Kong’s telecommunications sector is fully liberalised, with no restrictions on foreign ownership. Pricing control by regulators does not exist. Following the end of so-called “fifth-wave” of covid-19 in mid-2022, the recovery of Hong Kong’s tourism sector as well as consumption voucher programmes led to an improvement

Read More »

Consumer Goods and Retail Report South Korea 1st Quarter 2024

Consumer goods and retail report: Overview South Korea has a large, affluent consumer sector, with per-head personal disposable income expected to exceed US$18,890 in 2024. Minimum wage levels in South Korea are among the highest in the world. In the near term EIU expects growth in the consumer goods and

Read More »

Most Recent Industry Reports

Automotive Report India 1st Quarter 2024

Automotive report: Overview India has the second-largest passenger-car market in Asia, after China, and has seen a robust recovery in sales since the covid-19 pandemic. EIU expects slower market growth over the five-year forecast period (2024/25-2028/29), registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% a year for new-passenger car

Read More »

Automotive Report Ireland 2024

Automotive report: Overview Ireland’s automotive market is large relative to the size of the country’s population (estimated at about 5m in 2023), but small compared with other EU countries. New-vehicle sales fluctuate sharply in line with economic growth. Owing to a range of factors, including tighter monetary policy, EIU expects

Read More »

Consumer Goods and Retail Report Norway 2024

Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Norway’s consumer market is small by European standards (with an estimated population of 5.5m in 2023). However, it is a wealthy country-100% of households are expected to earn more than US$25,000 by 2030, compared with about 95% in Germany and 94% in the UK,

Read More »

Consumer Goods and Retail Report China 1st Quarter 2024

Consumer goods and retail report: Overview China is the world’s second-largest economy and consumer market. Private consumption has been the fastest-growing segment of the economy since the reopening from zero covid at end-2022. EIU has a broadly positive outlook for consumption growth in 2024, which bodes well not just for

Read More »

Financial Services Report Italy March 2024

Overview Italy’s financial sector has become more resilient and profitable in recent years, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, steep price and interest-rate rises, and the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The main driving factor has been better management and cost controls, in the wake of a series

Read More »

Telecommunications Report Brazil 1st Quarter 2024

Telecommunications report: Overview Brazil is the world’s fourth-largest mobile-telephone market by subscribers, behind China, the US and India. Its telecommunications market is difficult for service providers to navigate, as they face high federal tax (ICMS) rates, which typically vary between 17% and 18% across different states. The involvement of multiple

Read More »

Financial Services Report Australia March 2024

Overview Robust capital and liquidity helped Australia’s financial sector to rebound from earlier setbacks amid the coronavirus pandemic and recession. However, the sector has faced more difficult conditions recently, owing to a surge in inflation, which has necessitated an aggressive bout of monetary tightening. Australian banks will continue to focus

Read More »

Automotive Report Chile March 2024

Automotive report: Overview Chile is the third-largest automotive market in Latin America, behind Brazil (2.1m units) and Mexico (1.1m), and its population-about 19.6m in 2023-is prosperous by regional standards. New light vehicle sales are volatile but are higher than pre-pandemic levels. In 2023 new registrations in this segment shrank by

Read More »

Telecommunications Report Hong Kong March 2024

Telecommunications report: Overview Hong Kong’s telecommunications sector is fully liberalised, with no restrictions on foreign ownership. Pricing control by regulators does not exist. Following the end of so-called “fifth-wave” of covid-19 in mid-2022, the recovery of Hong Kong’s tourism sector as well as consumption voucher programmes led to an improvement

Read More »

Consumer Goods and Retail Report South Korea 1st Quarter 2024

Consumer goods and retail report: Overview South Korea has a large, affluent consumer sector, with per-head personal disposable income expected to exceed US$18,890 in 2024. Minimum wage levels in South Korea are among the highest in the world. In the near term EIU expects growth in the consumer goods and

Read More »

Most Recent Risk Ratings Reviews

Risk Logo

Risk Ratings Review (CRS) March 2023 Updater

While the global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region, elevated commodity prices will still support South American commodity-exporting countries but keep Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions,

Read More »
Risk Logo

Risk Ratings Review (CRS) February 2023

The global economy was more resilient than expected in late 2022
Global economic activity was more resilient than expected in late 2022, and started 2023 on a slightly firmer footing. Europe appears to have avoided a recession in the winter of 2022/23, in large part owing to warmer than usual

Read More »
Risk Logo

Risk Ratings Review (CRS) January 2023 Updater

The global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region. That said, commodity prices will still provide support for South American commodity-exporting countries, while keeping Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions, Latin

Read More »

Most Recent Risk Ratings Reviews

Risk Logo

Risk Ratings Review (CRS) March 2023 Updater

While the global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region, elevated commodity prices will still support South American commodity-exporting countries but keep Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions,

Read More »
Risk Logo

Risk Ratings Review (CRS) February 2023

The global economy was more resilient than expected in late 2022
Global economic activity was more resilient than expected in late 2022, and started 2023 on a slightly firmer footing. Europe appears to have avoided a recession in the winter of 2022/23, in large part owing to warmer than usual

Read More »
Risk Logo

Risk Ratings Review (CRS) January 2023 Updater

The global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region. That said, commodity prices will still provide support for South American commodity-exporting countries, while keeping Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions, Latin

Read More »