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Kazakhstan has a land mass the size of western Europe but a population of only 19.6m in 2023. The economic and social disruption caused by the transition from a planned economy in the 1990s led to an increase in the death rate, which peaked at 11.7 per 1,000 people in
Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards
Institutions are weak, but education levels are high for an emerging market
Initial conditions: Kazakhstan inherited a comparatively well-educated workforce at independence. This has partly eroded in the years since, firstly by a “brain drain” as skilled ethnic Russians emigrated to Russia (a trend that appears to be reversing). The
GDP per head in US dollar terms in 2021 was US$10,069, about 75% of the 2013 peak of US$13,160, just before the oil crash a year later. Following a period of currency stabilisation (despite a consistent depreciation of the tenge against the dollar) and strong economic growth, GDP per head
April 16th 2024
Demand
We forecast that global crude oil demand will hit record highs in 2024 and 2025 (and beyond), but that growth will decelerate to about 1% per year, or the equivalent of 1.1m barrels/day each year. Demand in the developed world, particularly Europe and Asia-Pacific, will decline,
April 1st 2024
Demand
Cotton consumption moves in tandem with textile demand. Prices and consumer confidence are important drivers of the global textiles sector, as textile and apparel consumption depends heavily on discretionary spending. We expect cotton demand to remain broadly stable, growing by only 0.3% in the 2023/24 season,
April 4th 2024
Demand
We expect that global demand for refined lead will grow steadily in 2024-25. Demand from the global vehicle industry will strengthen as receding recession risks and slowing inflation will allow policymakers to start loosening global monetary policy from mid-2024, thereby reducing financing costs. Record average vehicle
April 9th 2024
Demand
We expect NR consumption growth to strengthen in 2024 and 2025. The drag on demand from a post-covid-19 slump in the production of rubber gloves ran its course in 2023. End users in other rubber-intensive industrial sectors like car manufacturing will start to restock in 2024,
April 4th 2024
Demand
We expect global demand for nickel to continue to grow strongly in 2024-25, at an annual average rate of 6.6%, driven by surging global battery production and increased use of nickel in stainless steel production. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that production of lithium-ion batteries
April 1st 2024
Demand
We estimate that global tin consumption growth slowed from 1.6% in 2022 to 0.4% in 2023, continuing a decelerating trend after a surge caused by booming electronics production during the covid-19 pandemic. In China, which accounts for about half of global consumption each year, the lifting
Kazakhstan has a land mass the size of western Europe but a population of only 19.6m in 2023. The economic and social disruption caused by the transition from a planned economy in the 1990s led to an increase in the death rate, which peaked at 11.7 per 1,000 people in
Market opportunities: Social indicators and living standards
Institutions are weak, but education levels are high for an emerging market
Initial conditions: Kazakhstan inherited a comparatively well-educated workforce at independence. This has partly eroded in the years since, firstly by a “brain drain” as skilled ethnic Russians emigrated to Russia (a trend that appears to be reversing). The
GDP per head in US dollar terms in 2021 was US$10,069, about 75% of the 2013 peak of US$13,160, just before the oil crash a year later. Following a period of currency stabilisation (despite a consistent depreciation of the tenge against the dollar) and strong economic growth, GDP per head
April 16th 2024
Demand
We forecast that global crude oil demand will hit record highs in 2024 and 2025 (and beyond), but that growth will decelerate to about 1% per year, or the equivalent of 1.1m barrels/day each year. Demand in the developed world, particularly Europe and Asia-Pacific, will decline,
April 1st 2024
Demand
Cotton consumption moves in tandem with textile demand. Prices and consumer confidence are important drivers of the global textiles sector, as textile and apparel consumption depends heavily on discretionary spending. We expect cotton demand to remain broadly stable, growing by only 0.3% in the 2023/24 season,
April 4th 2024
Demand
We expect that global demand for refined lead will grow steadily in 2024-25. Demand from the global vehicle industry will strengthen as receding recession risks and slowing inflation will allow policymakers to start loosening global monetary policy from mid-2024, thereby reducing financing costs. Record average vehicle
April 9th 2024
Demand
We expect NR consumption growth to strengthen in 2024 and 2025. The drag on demand from a post-covid-19 slump in the production of rubber gloves ran its course in 2023. End users in other rubber-intensive industrial sectors like car manufacturing will start to restock in 2024,
April 4th 2024
Demand
We expect global demand for nickel to continue to grow strongly in 2024-25, at an annual average rate of 6.6%, driven by surging global battery production and increased use of nickel in stainless steel production. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that production of lithium-ion batteries
April 1st 2024
Demand
We estimate that global tin consumption growth slowed from 1.6% in 2022 to 0.4% in 2023, continuing a decelerating trend after a surge caused by booming electronics production during the covid-19 pandemic. In China, which accounts for about half of global consumption each year, the lifting
Key trends Geopolitical risk is weighing on the outlook for the global economy. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the dangerous confrontation that has emerged between Iran and Israel has highlighted
Key trends High interest rates and geopolitical competition are constraining global growth, but recession risks have receded. Global real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.4% in 2024, marginally below estimated growth of 2.5% in 2023. The US economy is forecast to remain resilient, and moderate stimulus in China will
Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as stoked by the Israel-Hamas war, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain reorganisation. Uncertainty over the foreign policy direction that the US will take after what is likely to be
Key trends Geopolitical risk is weighing on the outlook for the global economy. EIU’s baseline forecasts continue to rule out a war emerging in the Middle East or Asia comparable to that of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the dangerous confrontation that has emerged between Iran and Israel has highlighted
Key trends High interest rates and geopolitical competition are constraining global growth, but recession risks have receded. Global real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.4% in 2024, marginally below estimated growth of 2.5% in 2023. The US economy is forecast to remain resilient, and moderate stimulus in China will
Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as stoked by the Israel-Hamas war, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain reorganisation. Uncertainty over the foreign policy direction that the US will take after what is likely to be
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Japan has a large, affluent consumer sector, with per-head disposable income forecast to exceed US$20,170 in 2024. The country’s population of 124m makes it one of the world’s largest retail markets, even though it is likely to become an ageing society over the long
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview Argentina’s healthcare sector has come under increasing pressure against the backdrop of a deteriorating economy. This will continue, at least in the short term, as the new government, led by Javier Milei, attempts to push through a package of structural and fiscal reforms. More specifically,
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview The Indian healthcare system is underfunded, with poor access, affordability and regulatory oversight, while costs are growing. EIU estimates that India spent 3% of its GDP on healthcare in 2023-just above what it spent in 2019, when the covid-19 pandemic first emerged. Public healthcare spending
Automotive report: Overview South Korea is one of the world’s largest vehicle producers, but not one of the largest consumers, owing to its relatively small population. After new vehicle sales recovered in 2023, EIU expects it to grow at a moderate pace in our forecast period (2024-28). In the long
Consumer goods and retail report : Overview Malaysia is an important consumer market in South-east Asia, with over 50% of households expected to earn more than US$25,000 in 2024. In 2024-28 private consumption will remain the leading driver of Malaysia’s economic growth. Households’ purchasing power and real wage growth will
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Indonesia is one of the largest markets in South-east Asia. The size of its population and rapidly growing income levels make it an attractive retail market in the region for investors. EIU expects 54% of the population to earn more than US$10,000 by 2028.
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Canada is a high-income but not very populous consumer market with an ageing working population. EIU expects consumer demand to recover in the second half of 2024, primarily owing to slowing inflation. Canada is a more challenging market for retailers than the US. Higher
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview Spain’s expenditure on healthcare as a share of GDP was an estimated 10.3% in 2022. This was a slight dip from 10.7% in 2020 and 10.6% in 2021, reflecting the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on health spending. EIU estimates that, as the pandemic waned
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Brazil is Latin America’s most populous country and the region’s largest retail market. Falling unemployment rates and slower disinflation bode well for the consumer goods and retail sector in 2024 and should therefore boost real growth in retail sales volumes despite high interest rates.
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview In 2024 private consumption will drive Finland’s economic growth as the cost-of-living crisis abates and households gradually loosen their purse strings over the year, but overall retail sales growth will remain subdued. The war in Ukraine, supply-chain issues and high (albeit moderating) inflation will
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Japan has a large, affluent consumer sector, with per-head disposable income forecast to exceed US$20,170 in 2024. The country’s population of 124m makes it one of the world’s largest retail markets, even though it is likely to become an ageing society over the long
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview Argentina’s healthcare sector has come under increasing pressure against the backdrop of a deteriorating economy. This will continue, at least in the short term, as the new government, led by Javier Milei, attempts to push through a package of structural and fiscal reforms. More specifically,
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview The Indian healthcare system is underfunded, with poor access, affordability and regulatory oversight, while costs are growing. EIU estimates that India spent 3% of its GDP on healthcare in 2023-just above what it spent in 2019, when the covid-19 pandemic first emerged. Public healthcare spending
Automotive report: Overview South Korea is one of the world’s largest vehicle producers, but not one of the largest consumers, owing to its relatively small population. After new vehicle sales recovered in 2023, EIU expects it to grow at a moderate pace in our forecast period (2024-28). In the long
Consumer goods and retail report : Overview Malaysia is an important consumer market in South-east Asia, with over 50% of households expected to earn more than US$25,000 in 2024. In 2024-28 private consumption will remain the leading driver of Malaysia’s economic growth. Households’ purchasing power and real wage growth will
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Indonesia is one of the largest markets in South-east Asia. The size of its population and rapidly growing income levels make it an attractive retail market in the region for investors. EIU expects 54% of the population to earn more than US$10,000 by 2028.
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Canada is a high-income but not very populous consumer market with an ageing working population. EIU expects consumer demand to recover in the second half of 2024, primarily owing to slowing inflation. Canada is a more challenging market for retailers than the US. Higher
Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview Spain’s expenditure on healthcare as a share of GDP was an estimated 10.3% in 2022. This was a slight dip from 10.7% in 2020 and 10.6% in 2021, reflecting the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on health spending. EIU estimates that, as the pandemic waned
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview Brazil is Latin America’s most populous country and the region’s largest retail market. Falling unemployment rates and slower disinflation bode well for the consumer goods and retail sector in 2024 and should therefore boost real growth in retail sales volumes despite high interest rates.
Consumer goods and retail report: Overview In 2024 private consumption will drive Finland’s economic growth as the cost-of-living crisis abates and households gradually loosen their purse strings over the year, but overall retail sales growth will remain subdued. The war in Ukraine, supply-chain issues and high (albeit moderating) inflation will
While the global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region, elevated commodity prices will still support South American commodity-exporting countries but keep Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions,
The global economy was more resilient than expected in late 2022
Global economic activity was more resilient than expected in late 2022, and started 2023 on a slightly firmer footing. Europe appears to have avoided a recession in the winter of 2022/23, in large part owing to warmer than usual
The global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region. That said, commodity prices will still provide support for South American commodity-exporting countries, while keeping Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions, Latin
While the global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region, elevated commodity prices will still support South American commodity-exporting countries but keep Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions,
The global economy was more resilient than expected in late 2022
Global economic activity was more resilient than expected in late 2022, and started 2023 on a slightly firmer footing. Europe appears to have avoided a recession in the winter of 2022/23, in large part owing to warmer than usual
The global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region. That said, commodity prices will still provide support for South American commodity-exporting countries, while keeping Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions, Latin
