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Most Recent News Analysis

Montenegro outperforms neighbours in 2023

What’s happened?
In the fourth quarter of 2023 real GDP expanded by 1.5% quarter on quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Montenegro’s statistical office. This brings full-year growth in 2023 to a robust 5.8%, following 6.6% annual growth in 2022.
Why does it matter?
Montenegro’s economy performed robustly

Read More »

Asia week ahead: Japan waiting for rate hike

The Bank of Japan (BOJ, the central bank) will meet on March 18th-19th to decide on the policy interest rate. The big increase in wages during the annual wage negotiations is strengthening the case for the BOJ to exit its negative interest-rate policy, but we believe that this is more

Read More »

Growth in Latin America will moderate in 2024

We expect regional GDP growth to pick up on a sequential basis later this year owing to the beneficial, lagged impact of the interest-rate easing cycle that began in most countries in 2023. Although the legacy of tight policies has weighed on the regional economy in recent months, overall growth

Read More »

China unveils equipment upgrade and durables trade-in plan

What’s happened?
On March 13th China’s State Council (cabinet) unveiled a plan to promote massive equipment upgrades and trade-ins of consumer goods including car and home appliances.
Why does it matter?
EIU expects the underlying demand for such upgrades and trade-ins to be weak for three reasons. First, poor profitability

Read More »

Tanzania faces growing currency pressures in 2024

What’s happened?
Depreciation of the Tanzanian shilling has accelerated over the past few weeks, taking the rate against the US dollar to TSh2,541.7:US$1 on March 12th, according to data from the Bank of Tanzania (BoT), the central bank. A sharp correction of the Tanzanian shilling against the US dollar has

Read More »

Syrian pound shows signs of stabilising

What’s happened?
Syria’s parallel-market exchange rate has steadily appreciated since end-January, marking the longest sustained strengthening of the currency since early 2020. This remains in line with our expectation of a broader recovery in Syria’s parallel exchange rate this year as capital flows into the country rise, prompting a stabilisation

Read More »

February’s drought lowers Argentina’s crop harvest

What’s happened?
Agricultural production in the June 2023-May 2024 harvest is rebounding from drought-induced declines in 2022/23, but export earnings will be lower than previously expected, amid lower international food prices and the aftermath of a heatwave that hit crops in February. Agricultural harvest estimates have now declined to only

Read More »

Lula’s approval rating dips

The latest polls show a drop in recent weeks in the popularity of the president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT). If this proves to be more than a blip and his standing continues to decline, the president will be tempted to turn more

Read More »

Labour union strikes disrupt economic activity in Finland

What’s happened?
Unions are protesting against the government’s proposed labour market reform. The bill proposes changes that will restrict employees’ right to strike, cap wages in all sectors to wage increases in the export industry and cut unemployment insurance, among others. More than 300,000 people are likely to join the

Read More »

Slovakia economy: Demographic profile

Slovakia’s population grew by 1.2% in 2019-23, and EIU expects a 0.8% contraction in the forecast period. The flow of refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine has slowed significantly, and with a new government that is less keen on opening its borders to migrants, this will lead to a contraction

Read More »

Most Recent News Analysis

Montenegro outperforms neighbours in 2023

What’s happened?
In the fourth quarter of 2023 real GDP expanded by 1.5% quarter on quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Montenegro’s statistical office. This brings full-year growth in 2023 to a robust 5.8%, following 6.6% annual growth in 2022.
Why does it matter?
Montenegro’s economy performed robustly

Read More »

Asia week ahead: Japan waiting for rate hike

The Bank of Japan (BOJ, the central bank) will meet on March 18th-19th to decide on the policy interest rate. The big increase in wages during the annual wage negotiations is strengthening the case for the BOJ to exit its negative interest-rate policy, but we believe that this is more

Read More »

Growth in Latin America will moderate in 2024

We expect regional GDP growth to pick up on a sequential basis later this year owing to the beneficial, lagged impact of the interest-rate easing cycle that began in most countries in 2023. Although the legacy of tight policies has weighed on the regional economy in recent months, overall growth

Read More »

China unveils equipment upgrade and durables trade-in plan

What’s happened?
On March 13th China’s State Council (cabinet) unveiled a plan to promote massive equipment upgrades and trade-ins of consumer goods including car and home appliances.
Why does it matter?
EIU expects the underlying demand for such upgrades and trade-ins to be weak for three reasons. First, poor profitability

Read More »

Tanzania faces growing currency pressures in 2024

What’s happened?
Depreciation of the Tanzanian shilling has accelerated over the past few weeks, taking the rate against the US dollar to TSh2,541.7:US$1 on March 12th, according to data from the Bank of Tanzania (BoT), the central bank. A sharp correction of the Tanzanian shilling against the US dollar has

Read More »

Syrian pound shows signs of stabilising

What’s happened?
Syria’s parallel-market exchange rate has steadily appreciated since end-January, marking the longest sustained strengthening of the currency since early 2020. This remains in line with our expectation of a broader recovery in Syria’s parallel exchange rate this year as capital flows into the country rise, prompting a stabilisation

Read More »

February’s drought lowers Argentina’s crop harvest

What’s happened?
Agricultural production in the June 2023-May 2024 harvest is rebounding from drought-induced declines in 2022/23, but export earnings will be lower than previously expected, amid lower international food prices and the aftermath of a heatwave that hit crops in February. Agricultural harvest estimates have now declined to only

Read More »

Lula’s approval rating dips

The latest polls show a drop in recent weeks in the popularity of the president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT). If this proves to be more than a blip and his standing continues to decline, the president will be tempted to turn more

Read More »

Labour union strikes disrupt economic activity in Finland

What’s happened?
Unions are protesting against the government’s proposed labour market reform. The bill proposes changes that will restrict employees’ right to strike, cap wages in all sectors to wage increases in the export industry and cut unemployment insurance, among others. More than 300,000 people are likely to join the

Read More »

Slovakia economy: Demographic profile

Slovakia’s population grew by 1.2% in 2019-23, and EIU expects a 0.8% contraction in the forecast period. The flow of refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine has slowed significantly, and with a new government that is less keen on opening its borders to migrants, this will lead to a contraction

Read More »

Most Recent Global Outlook

Country Forecast World 2nd Quarter 2024

Key trends High interest rates and geopolitical competition are constraining global growth, but recession risks have receded. Global real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.4% in 2024, marginally below estimated growth of 2.5% in 2023. The US economy is forecast to remain resilient, and moderate stimulus in China will

Read More »

Country Forecast World 1st Quarter 2024

Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as stoked by the Israel-Hamas war, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain reorganisation. Uncertainty over the foreign policy direction that the US will take after what is likely to be

Read More »

Country Forecast World 1st Quarter 2024

Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. Rising risks associated with the Israel-Hamas war add complexity to a global geopolitical environment that is characterised by intensifying competition. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as also stoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain

Read More »

Most Recent Global Outlook

Country Forecast World 2nd Quarter 2024

Key trends High interest rates and geopolitical competition are constraining global growth, but recession risks have receded. Global real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.4% in 2024, marginally below estimated growth of 2.5% in 2023. The US economy is forecast to remain resilient, and moderate stimulus in China will

Read More »

Country Forecast World 1st Quarter 2024

Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as stoked by the Israel-Hamas war, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain reorganisation. Uncertainty over the foreign policy direction that the US will take after what is likely to be

Read More »

Country Forecast World 1st Quarter 2024

Key trends Geopolitical shocks are weighing on the outlook. Rising risks associated with the Israel-Hamas war add complexity to a global geopolitical environment that is characterised by intensifying competition. EIU sees geopolitical tensions, as also stoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China rivalry, leading to economic fragmentation and supply-chain

Read More »

Most Recent Industry Reports

Healthcare Report Japan 1st Quarter 2024

Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview Japan’s total healthcare spending reached US$487bn in 2022 (11.4% of GDP, according to the OECD), making it the third-highest spender on healthcare worldwide, behind the US and China. EIU estimates that this share will decline slightly to 11.3% of GDP by 2028. According to the

Read More »

Automotive Report France 1st Quarter 2024

Automotive report: Overview In 2022 France’s motor-vehicle market (comprising new cars and commercial vehicles-CVs) suffered its second contraction in three years as GDP growth slowed to 2.5%. Sales in the EU’s second-largest vehicle market fell by 7.8%. However, despite slower real GDP growth, new-car sales rebounded strongly in 2023, expanding

Read More »

Automotive Report South Africa February 2024

Automotive report: Overview South Africa has the largest automotive market on the continent, with over 532,500 new vehicles (comprising both cars and commercial vehicles-CVs) sold locally in 2023, according to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA). The sector plays an important economic role, accounting for 4.9%

Read More »

Consumer Goods and Retail Report France 1st Quarter 2024

Consumer goods and retail report: Overview France is Europe’s third-largest consumer market by annual retail expenditure and population, after Germany and the UK. Household consumption accounts for just over 50% of GDP, similar to the share in Germany. The food retail sector is competitive and dominated by large domestic players.

Read More »

Telecommunications Report United States of America 1st Quarter 2024

Telecommunications report: Overview EIU forecasts that mobile subscriptions will expand by an annual average of 2.6% over the 2024-28 forecast period and the number of internet users by about 1% a year, reflecting the already high level of market penetration. The number of fixed broadband subscriptions will grow from an

Read More »

Automotive Report Belgium 2024

Automotive report: Overview Vehicle production in Belgium has fallen sharply over the past two decades as manufacturers have scaled back capacity across western Europe. Output has also been constrained by supply-side disruption from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. However, the automotive industry remains an integral part of the

Read More »

Healthcare Report Turkey 1st Quarter 2024

Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview In the past two decades Turkey has made rapid advances in population health and access to healthcare. Almost all the resident population is covered by the universal health insurance system. In addition, registered Syrian refugees, of whom there were 3.2m in early February 2024, are

Read More »

Automotive Report Poland February 2024

Automotive report: Overview The automotive industry is Poland’s second largest by turnover, according to the Polish Association of the Automotive Industry (PZPM). The country is part of the east-central European production hub, which includes the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary. Production started to recover in 2022-23 after a slump

Read More »

Healthcare Report China 1st Quarter 2024

Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview The covid-19 pandemic exposed fragilities in China’s healthcare system, despite two decades of reform. Under the 14th five-year plan (2021-25) announced in March 2021, the government aims to tackle some of these shortcomings by improving the funding of public health and long-term care, and expanding

Read More »

Healthcare Report South Korea 1st Quarter 2024

Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview According to EIU estimates, total healthcare expenditure in South Korea remained stable at 9.6% of GDP in 2023. This share, which is among the highest in Asia, has risen from just 6.4% in 2014. We expect this ratio to rise to 10% towards the end

Read More »

Most Recent Industry Reports

Healthcare Report Japan 1st Quarter 2024

Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview Japan’s total healthcare spending reached US$487bn in 2022 (11.4% of GDP, according to the OECD), making it the third-highest spender on healthcare worldwide, behind the US and China. EIU estimates that this share will decline slightly to 11.3% of GDP by 2028. According to the

Read More »

Automotive Report France 1st Quarter 2024

Automotive report: Overview In 2022 France’s motor-vehicle market (comprising new cars and commercial vehicles-CVs) suffered its second contraction in three years as GDP growth slowed to 2.5%. Sales in the EU’s second-largest vehicle market fell by 7.8%. However, despite slower real GDP growth, new-car sales rebounded strongly in 2023, expanding

Read More »

Automotive Report South Africa February 2024

Automotive report: Overview South Africa has the largest automotive market on the continent, with over 532,500 new vehicles (comprising both cars and commercial vehicles-CVs) sold locally in 2023, according to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA). The sector plays an important economic role, accounting for 4.9%

Read More »

Consumer Goods and Retail Report France 1st Quarter 2024

Consumer goods and retail report: Overview France is Europe’s third-largest consumer market by annual retail expenditure and population, after Germany and the UK. Household consumption accounts for just over 50% of GDP, similar to the share in Germany. The food retail sector is competitive and dominated by large domestic players.

Read More »

Telecommunications Report United States of America 1st Quarter 2024

Telecommunications report: Overview EIU forecasts that mobile subscriptions will expand by an annual average of 2.6% over the 2024-28 forecast period and the number of internet users by about 1% a year, reflecting the already high level of market penetration. The number of fixed broadband subscriptions will grow from an

Read More »

Automotive Report Belgium 2024

Automotive report: Overview Vehicle production in Belgium has fallen sharply over the past two decades as manufacturers have scaled back capacity across western Europe. Output has also been constrained by supply-side disruption from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. However, the automotive industry remains an integral part of the

Read More »

Healthcare Report Turkey 1st Quarter 2024

Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview In the past two decades Turkey has made rapid advances in population health and access to healthcare. Almost all the resident population is covered by the universal health insurance system. In addition, registered Syrian refugees, of whom there were 3.2m in early February 2024, are

Read More »

Automotive Report Poland February 2024

Automotive report: Overview The automotive industry is Poland’s second largest by turnover, according to the Polish Association of the Automotive Industry (PZPM). The country is part of the east-central European production hub, which includes the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary. Production started to recover in 2022-23 after a slump

Read More »

Healthcare Report China 1st Quarter 2024

Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview The covid-19 pandemic exposed fragilities in China’s healthcare system, despite two decades of reform. Under the 14th five-year plan (2021-25) announced in March 2021, the government aims to tackle some of these shortcomings by improving the funding of public health and long-term care, and expanding

Read More »

Healthcare Report South Korea 1st Quarter 2024

Healthcare report: Healthcare spending Overview According to EIU estimates, total healthcare expenditure in South Korea remained stable at 9.6% of GDP in 2023. This share, which is among the highest in Asia, has risen from just 6.4% in 2014. We expect this ratio to rise to 10% towards the end

Read More »

Most Recent Risk Ratings Reviews

Risk Logo

Risk Ratings Review (CRS) March 2023 Updater

While the global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region, elevated commodity prices will still support South American commodity-exporting countries but keep Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions,

Read More »
Risk Logo

Risk Ratings Review (CRS) February 2023

The global economy was more resilient than expected in late 2022
Global economic activity was more resilient than expected in late 2022, and started 2023 on a slightly firmer footing. Europe appears to have avoided a recession in the winter of 2022/23, in large part owing to warmer than usual

Read More »
Risk Logo

Risk Ratings Review (CRS) January 2023 Updater

The global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region. That said, commodity prices will still provide support for South American commodity-exporting countries, while keeping Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions, Latin

Read More »

Most Recent Risk Ratings Reviews

Risk Logo

Risk Ratings Review (CRS) March 2023 Updater

While the global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region, elevated commodity prices will still support South American commodity-exporting countries but keep Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions,

Read More »
Risk Logo

Risk Ratings Review (CRS) February 2023

The global economy was more resilient than expected in late 2022
Global economic activity was more resilient than expected in late 2022, and started 2023 on a slightly firmer footing. Europe appears to have avoided a recession in the winter of 2022/23, in large part owing to warmer than usual

Read More »
Risk Logo

Risk Ratings Review (CRS) January 2023 Updater

The global downturn and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook for the region. That said, commodity prices will still provide support for South American commodity-exporting countries, while keeping Central American and Caribbean oil-importing economies under strain. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions, Latin

Read More »